Who can use it:
Utilities and marketers interested in improving the accuracy of their budgeting, procurement, demand forecasting, and reconciliation functions. Analyses developed using Unified Modeling 2 (“UM2”) and SureCalc® are strongly defensible in regulatory proceedings due to the independence of the models and the track record of the technology.

Description:
Our effective and accurate UM2 and SureCalc® modeling allows clients to be confident in determining customer energy consumption with respect to weather. The benefits of modeling with UM2 and SureCalc® include a complete understanding of consumer behavior and price elasticity and more precision when purchasing energy. Such accuracy in purchasing can result in reduced costs. SureCalc® technology is currently available on more computing platforms, while UM2 is faster and more accurate because of enhanced variable separation.

Energy consumption modeling at the consumer level is integral to all WeatherWise energy technologies. UM2 and SureCalc® individual consumer models are built by a heuristic generation and testing technique. The final models are as simple to apply as traditional regression models, however the accuracy is greatly improved. UM2 technology is the industry leader in consumption modeling and precise calculations.

These models are superior to traditional models used in demand forecasting for internal planning and budgeting and for rate case filings because they are more accurate on a day-to-day and a month-to-month basis. If automatic meter reading hourly data is available, then reliable hourly models can be produced.

All of our services are based on UM2 and SureCalc® energy consumption models. These services include:

• Energy Procurement: WeatherWise can perform significant simulations using energy consumption models to assist in the purchase of financial options and swing volumes to cover risks.
• Gas Nomination and Electric Demand: These models can be aggregated to produce average daily consumption curves by temperature that are suitable for gas nomination or predicting electric demand for a specific customer base.
• Price Risk Management: Monte Carlo simulations using the energy consumption models vary the conditions each day over time to produce a probabilistic pricing forecast that guides purchasing strategy.
• Benchmarking Energy Company Financial Models: These technologies can be deployed to verify existing utility energy models where consumer behavior appears to be very volatile and refine energy company unbilled revenue calculations.
• Demand Forecasting: Superior normalization can be used to model peak day usage for specific individuals or groups of consumers with greater accuracy than existing methods.
• Nominations: Accurate sendout curves tied to individual gas distribution citygates or electric interconnects can be produced to provide better information for daily nominations for energy purchasing.
• Rate making: The models are completely independent and the rate forecasts they produce can be used to ensure more accurate results.
• Unbilled Revenue: Calculations are more accurate and can be used to provide greater stability in annual financial data.

UM2 and SureCalc® are the intellectual property of, and are available for license exclusively from, Pittsburgh Technology Licensing Corp. WeatherWise USA, Inc. provides support services and training with respect to these technologies.